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I noted with much sadness the demise of Salthouse Marine today.  Not because I am a mad boatie but this is further proof of my research that indicated that 2010 would be the really bad year for the economy.

And the tinkering with the tax system will only worsen that.  As much as I think National have a difficult environment to navigate in to say things like “The tax cuts will cancel out the GST increase” is ridiculous. I mean how stupid do they think we are. If the tax cuts were going to cancel out the GST increase they wouldn’t do ti would they.

Obviously the GST increase will increase revenue significantly or they would only be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

Unfortunately the unfolding of the next 12 months is going to cause many people to batten down the hatches at a time of unprecedented opportunity.

I even saw this week a household name in a related industry to mine selling himself as a 2 bit salesman instead of harnessing his skills to really capitalise on the current storm. You wouldn’t believe me if I told you his name, it is just incredible.

So what about you my friends? You may face some challenges this year that you hoped were behind you, so how are you going to frame them?

I believe it will be critical this year to adopt a big picture mentality.  If you don’t have a clear defined goal and put in place strategies to get there you will founder.

For example let’s say you had a business and it was failing slowly.  Ultimately you have 4 choices.

1. Throw in the towel now.
2. Take on a risky opportunity in the hope of turning things around.
3. Bleed to death.
4. Find a 4^th alternative

Most people opt for 2 or 3 in my experience.  They hang on to the bitter end, eroding any equity they might have had, knowing that their actions will always end in bankruptcy OR they grab at some short straw, whether it be a new strategy, product or even a total hare brained scheme that they would never look at normally.

I know this is true because I try and help these people after they’ve lost it all or after the PLA is issued.

But there is always an alternative if we can allow ourselves the luxury of a big picture analysis.

I am currently reading the best book I have picked up in years, written by a chess world champion. He is discussing how his world/political and business views have been molded by his chess career.

He said in one chapter that part of teaching new players is to show them a board in mid game and tell them to analyse the play and decide what their approach is.  However they do not tell them whether they are black or white and whose turn it is next.

This forces a big picture analysis because they have to explore and develop the entire game, not just their own position.

In a sense this “suspends” time so that the player can look at everything.

And that is going to be the secret of this year.  I am speaking about this in Rotorua tomorrow night and am separating out what we “know” from what we “think” we know because the difference can mean success or failure.

So in your situation, whatever it may be, are you going to look at your position and focus on that or take a big picture view and come up with a real solution.

I don’t have space here to fill you in on my last 18 months but I can tell you that if I focused on my problems and what was going wrong I wouldn’t be here.

Parting thought for today.

A weakness that your opponent can’t exploit is NOT a real weakness now is it??

Stay Inspired and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus

The Ethical Investor

PS Don’t forget to book for teh NZ Property Gurus launch, we are nearly sold out!!  CHECK IT OUT