Archive for recession
Will it ever end
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I have had three meetings this week with close friends all involved in real estate in New Zealand and it is the forst time I could sense their total frustration at the never ending recession. No one expected 4 years on for things to still be so bad and it is really grinding people down. There is some talk of the Auckland market doing well but it si simply not true unless you are in certain streets on the right day holding your mouth a certain way.
My coping mechanism always has been to focus on the positive and keep looking for solutions. I don’t expect that will ever change as I think it is good for my mental health, however I think also sometimes just have to acknowledge how bad things are and let that be OK as well.
So many of my friends, and myself for that matter, are battling uphill battles or have been overtaken by their situations and there are plenty more to come yet.
So yes we are in teh worst financial crisis since the depression. Black Friday and the .com bust were nothing compared to this.
So for many the end wil be rocky and a long recovery. And that is life, sad but true as Metallica would croon.
But I can’t help myself and must look for some positive in every situation. For me it has been the rallying of friends and even clients who appreciate my candour about my own situation and can relate it to theirs. I have been overwhelmed with emails, support and affection. Almost enough to make the whole thing worth while.
One thing we are not short of is judges and spite. The news is full of it everyday world wide. You can make a difference by being the difference!
I hope that in the midst of your situation, whether it is currently great or terrible, that you will find it within you to love those you love, be kind to those you can and encourage those who need it.
It has made the world of difference to me in the last few months and forges friendships that will last any adversity.
As to the recession, keep an eye on your inbox for my Christmas newsletter shortly!!
Stay Loving and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
Up, down, sideways or the same
Posted by: | CommentsA fascinating week in the news with T
he Economist warning us of a 25% drop in house prices, every real estate principal saying the opposite and the statistics able to favour any position depending on which particular part of the country you examine.
I think that New Zealand, like the USA, really doesn’t know what to do and how to assess the information coming out so in true DIY fashion, we all guess.
The fact is the world is in a mess economically. The nations most at risk are those who tried to avoid a hard landing in the early stages of the recession, propping up their economies in the hope that the recovery would come in time for them to avoid any real pain.
The problem is the recession isn’t going anywhere soon and the countries taking the big hits, who appear so incompetent now, like most of Europe, are probably no worse off than the USA and other more “civilized nations”.
Housing is an indicator of a countries wealth, their residents incomes and their general outlook on life. It isn’t something you can manipulate or control to improve an economy.
So in many caes the real hard issues aren’t yet being addressed or fixed. And until they are we will continue to have this seesaw posturing. But you can be sure of one thing in my opinion:
Every nation in the world is affected by what happens in China, followed closely by the USA. And they BOTH have an ocean of pain to go through yet, which must wash over us all.
So hang on, we’re still in for a bumpy ride
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Stay Inspired and Hold Fast ~ Dean Letfus
When does the light go on?
Posted by: | CommentsI remember at the beginning of the so called “GFC” there was enormous debate and ringing of hands over whether this was a recession or a depression. Nobody wanted to allow anybody else to call it a depression because that would be negative news, harder to stomach and technically “untrue”.
So in the end everybody agreed that this was only a recession and we all smiled. Oh it’s only a recession, we’ll be through this in no time and this has happened before, just relax.
At the time I said there were 2 ways to get through this for any nation, option 1 was to allow the economy to find its floor quickly so that the pain ended quickly and then rebuild on a genuine floor.
Or pretend things weren’t too bad and hope for a soft landing by propping things up until a real recovery occurred.
Well it’s now 2011 and things are getting worse, again, because we still haven’t recognised the need to find the floor. As I said yesterday we now have given China power over the world by looking to them for assistance with recovery by falling over ourselves to become trading partners and taking every dollar they would spend with us.
Most economies are now in much worse shape than they were 4 years ago because they have huge interest costs to pay on top of the principal they owed in 2007. An fact many countries are now hoping for a miracle to service their INTEREST, forget trying to pay the principal
.
I bring this to your attention solely to highlight the fact that sometimes reality is a good thing. We needed to recognise in 07 that we were up to our earlobes in bovine eschatology and governments could have embarked on an austere economic reform system to dig themselves out of this and rebuild on a solid foundation. Ignoring that has cost us all years of pain.
Now the upside of this, (every cloud…….), is that interest rates and house values are going ot remain subdued probably for many years to come.
So we have the perfect cash flow storm courtesy of our fear of the word “depression”. This is wonderful news for anybody able to get going with investing and we will see more people retire off the back of this fiasco than any time previously I believe because the opportunities are unprecedented.
So find a way to get into your next investment, whether in NZ or the USA and drive every spare cent you can into debt reduction and hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride!!
Get Going and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
China now the centre of the universe.
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It is interesting in a slightly scary way, that China is now the undisputed centre of the universe. Read any article on global economics and their predictions are all, without exception, dependent on one thing: China continuing to buy everything from everyone at good prices.
Australia is 200% reliant on China for its resources boom to continue
New Zealand is banking on its largest partner now, China, “continuing to pay top dollar for our goods” and the USA has already been castrated.
I’m not making any moral judgments on this, simply stating a fact. What this means is that we need to assume that China will not rescue the world, why would it, and that we need to factor into our financial futures a further meltdown globally.
I would say it is inevitable that we see another recession, really a depression pretty much world wide, when China slows down as it must.
For me this makes the USA even more attractive as an investment option because they are at the forefront of the devaluing of their real estate. In other words they are a long way through the pain that much of the West is not “enjoying” yet.
You need to make your own conclusions and there are plenty of things that could affect our futures differently but for the whole world to be relying on one economy, and an economy that has no vested interest in suddenly becoming altruistic, is a sure fire leading indicator of trouble.
Get Going and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
Surely markets ARE the reality?
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I do not know Alistair Helm from realestate.co.nz but his company research and his comments have always been high quality and intelligent, unlike many commentators.
So I had to laugh at a comment he is quoted as making after publishing his latest report which is being published all over the web and print media.
“We are now more in favour of sellers than buyers in the vast majority of regions, but the market doesn’t appear to have realised it,” Helm said.
So the stats are reality abut the market is ignoring the research??
Surely the reality is that the market iss till bad because our economy is bad and inflation is starting to kill us, especially with food. So the reduction in listings actually means little if anything because we are not in a “normal” market.
I strongly suspect that the market will stay in reality mode and ignore the latest stats because you can’t eat and drink stats. People are keeping their money in their pockets and prioritising how to survive, not rushing out to buy the new house.
Having said that I do have to express some surprise at the 2.3% increase in vehicle sales which could arguably be a leading indicator of increased confidence. OR maybe everybody who wanted to buy a house settled for a second hand car instead
Get Going and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
It was in the Herald, it must be true??
Posted by: | CommentsSo another fascinating CGT article in the Herald that defies my belief, so I am forced to comment again
.Labour have found themselves an academic to bolster their cause so let’s look at some of this professors statements.
“Myth: Capital gains are fundamentally different to wages or salary.
Reality: Capital gains tax simply closes the largest single exemption from the income tax.
To economists, and to most people, a profit from buying and selling property is plainly income, just like salary or wages earned from labour.”
This is of course completely true, ONLY if you ignore inflation. These gains are not taxed because they are not and will never be income. If they were income, that is profits from trading property, then traders ALREADY PAY income tax on the profit. Increased values through inflation is not income OK!
“Myth: CGT would discourage savings and capital investment.
Reality: CGT could level the playing field for investment.”
Riiiiight. So by making taxes less equal by penalising the so called rich will level the investment playing field. It is anti wealth policies and poor financial education, both hallmarks of Labour that discourage savings. We had a decade of Helen to make as many people as possible dependent on the government and not take responsibility for themselves so now that those willing to plan their own futures are an even smaller minority let’s tax them more to make everything seem fair.
“Myth: International investors will flee New Zealand and/or rich professionals will leave.
Reality: New Zealand should be trying to attract those who will invest and work in the productive economy, rather than using the country as a tax shelter.
Over time a CGT will improve efficiency and productivity.”
The most alarming thing about such an error riddled statement is that there is not one example given by the professor to show that this has worked anywhere else.
Countries that have CGT for example, like Australia, are watching their investors pour billions of dollars into the USA right now partly to escape the CGT net. They also invest heavily in NZ for the same reason. The above statement presupposes that you can make a national sport die off through legislation. Kiwi’s love property, always have and always will. Saying we should force people to invest in other things is both ridiculous and covert communism. Deal with reality, we will go offshore with our money and many professionals leave our shored daily now because our INCOMES ARE TOO LOW, simple as that. CGT will only send more of them off shore.
“Myth: We already have CGT on some property and land transactions, so we don’t need one.Reality: CGT would plug gaps and simplify those rules.
The rules that effectively tax some limited types of capital gains are complex, and based on fuzzy concepts such as a purchaser’s “intention” when they buy property.”
This probably takes the cake for me. Current rules on property are very clear. If you are a dealer in land or property your gains are taxable. Gee that is so fuzzy it is amazing.
“Myth: The impact on the housing market would be disastrous.
Reality: The change to house prices will likely be modest, home ownership rates are likely to increase, and rental increases can be mitigated.
Some opponents say CGT will gut the housing market; others say house prices may skyrocket. Evidence suggests neither is true.
Modelling indicates
Home ownership rates are estimated
Rents will likely”
Indicates, estimates and likely……., how about some facts. CGT has driven house prices up almost everywhere it has come in, look next door at Australia.
Make no mistake, taxes like this virtually ALWAYS affect the people who it is intended to protect. Tenants, first home buyers and low income families will be whacked around the head. Investors will charge more to compensate or go offshore. I mean this is not me bashing this policy it is common sense. What else would investors do? Absorb these costs themselves? They have a fiduciary obligation as directors and business people to make money so they have to pass these costs on.
Myth: CGT makes accountants and lawyers gleeful.
Myth? Obviously this man has never spoken to an accountant. Look through companies created a goldmine for accountants, they are laughing all the way to their Porsches. This new tax would give them so much more leeway to make money as they can charge based on how much they can save you
“We can also learn from South Africa: when it introduced CGT 10 years ago,”
Yes let’s do that. What impact did CGT have on house prices since 2001……
OK so CGT ushered in the highest growth in property prices in South Africa’s history, stopped only by the global recession. Yes you are right Mr Professor, we can and should learn from South Africa. If we want to make NZ housing even more unaffordable we should tax housing more and penalise those trying to house other kiwi’s.
If this gets in watch the money leave our shores in droves…..
(and if I am scare mongering, well it’s my blog
. And I care about people’s futures, taxing ourselves as a solution to a global recession is well, the sort of thing only Labour would do IMHO.)
Get Going and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
Chickens roosting?
Posted by: | CommentsI have watched the OZ property market defy gravity, well forever
, so it is interesting to see some cracks finally appear. I had started to conclude that maybe their compulsory super scheme was actually going to allow them to escape the recession in terms of housing values, but cycles are by nature relentless so maybe it is finally catching up with them.
This article LINK exposes the likely downside for the banks, but worse then New Zealand it will also put a lot of Oz investors underwater. Australia has always been only a growth play so remove the growth and……
you can hear the pop from here
.
Like all markets I am sure there will be money to be made in this correction and some markets will roll on. Melbourne, which has been the darling of investors certainly looks like it might be in for a roasting for a while.
Putting aside the human element and just talking as an investor it would be interesting to see a US style collapse in Australia to bring yields up to where it is worth investing there. (I hope this doesn’t happen for the sake of the Aussies but interesting Deutsche Bank allowing for a 60% drop, scary). In the mean time we continue to see double digit net returns in Memphis and Atlanta
Get Going and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus
PS: Latest Memphis list at LINK





